CSE Pulse — Sri Lanka Stock Market Intelligence

CSE Open 10:30–14:30 IST 🇱🇰 LK English සිංහල தமிழ்

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🇱🇰 Live

All Share Price Index

🇱🇰

12,847.35

▲ 157.42 (+1.24%)

S&P Sri Lanka 20

🇱🇰

4,218.90

▲ 52.14 (+1.25%)

USD / LKR

💱

329.14

▼ 0.35 (−0.12%)

Gold (USD/oz)

🥇

3,322.40

▲ 18.60 (+0.56%)

SL 10Y Bond Yield

🏦

11.42%

▼ 0.08% (−0.70%)

	Symbol ▼	Last ↕	Chg% ↕	Chg ↕	High	Low	Volume ↕	Mkt Cap ↕	P/E ↕	Stock Sense™	7D Chart

Showing 10 of 308 CSE-listed stocks View all 308 stocks →

Index	Value	Change	Chg%	High	Low	YTD%
ASPIAll Share Price Index	12,847.35	+157.42	▲ 1.24%	12,861.00	12,690.00	+22.4%
S&P SL20S&P Sri Lanka 20 Index	4,218.90	+52.14	▲ 1.25%	4,224.50	4,166.00	+19.8%
MPIMilanka Price Index	9,312.40	+88.60	▲ 0.96%	9,338.00	9,220.00	+17.2%
CSE BanksCSE Banking Sector Index	7,842.10	+96.30	▲ 1.24%	7,860.00	7,745.00	+24.1%
CSE HotelsHotels & Leisure Sector Index	5,104.60	+208.40	▲ 4.26%	5,118.00	4,895.00	+31.4%

Pair	Rate	Change	Chg%	Bid	Ask	Updated
USD/LKRUS Dollar / Sri Lanka Rupee	329.14	−0.35	▼ 0.11%	328.50	329.80	Live
EUR/USDEuro / US Dollar	1.1248	+0.0082	▲ 0.73%	1.1244	1.1252	Live
GBP/USDBritish Pound / US Dollar	1.3312	+0.0045	▲ 0.34%	1.3308	1.3316	Live
USD/JPYUS Dollar / Japanese Yen	145.82	−0.94	▼ 0.64%	145.78	145.86	Live
EUR/LKREuro / Sri Lanka Rupee	370.24	+2.14	▲ 0.58%	369.80	370.68	Live
GBP/LKRBritish Pound / Sri Lanka Rupee	438.24	+1.80	▲ 0.41%	437.90	438.58	Live

Commodity	Price	Unit	Change	Chg%	1W%	Relevance to SL
GoldXAU/USD · Spot	3,322.40	USD/oz	+18.60	▲ 0.56%	+2.1%	🟢 High — jewellery exports
Crude Oil (Brent)ICE Brent · Near Month	79.42	USD/bbl	−0.84	▼ 1.05%	−2.8%	🔴 High — import costs
Tea (Colombo)Ceylon Tea · Auction Avg	1,414	LKR/kg	+174	▲ 14.0%	+6.4%	🟢 Critical — #1 export
RubberTSR 20 · Singapore	1.82	USD/kg	+0.04	▲ 2.25%	+1.8%	🟡 Medium — plantations
Coconut OilColombo CMC · Bulk	2,240	LKR/kg	−40	▼ 1.75%	−3.2%	🟡 Medium — food & exports
SilverXAG/USD · Spot	33.14	USD/oz	+0.48	▲ 1.47%	+3.6%	🟡 Medium — jewellery

Asset	Price (USD)	Change	Chg%	24h High	24h Low	Mkt Cap
BTCBitcoin	103,284.20	+1,842.10	▲ 1.82%	104,210.00	101,440.00	$2.04T
ETHEthereum	2,512.40	+84.20	▲ 3.47%	2,540.00	2,428.00	$302B
BNBBNB Chain	648.80	−12.40	▼ 1.87%	664.20	641.00	$94B
SOLSolana	182.40	+6.80	▲ 3.87%	185.20	175.80	$88B
USDTTether USD	1.0001	+0.0001	▲ 0.01%	1.0002	0.9999	$145B

Instrument	Yield	Change (bps)	Maturity	Coupon	Price	Liquidity
SL 91-Day T-BillCentral Bank of Sri Lanka	9.84%	−4 bps	Aug 2026	—	99.42	🟢 High
SL 182-Day T-BillCentral Bank of Sri Lanka	10.12%	−3 bps	Nov 2026	—	98.84	🟢 High
SL 364-Day T-BillCentral Bank of Sri Lanka	10.48%	−5 bps	May 2027	—	97.68	🟢 High
SL 3Y BondGovernment of Sri Lanka	10.82%	−8 bps	May 2029	11.00%	98.52	🟡 Medium
SL 5Y BondGovernment of Sri Lanka	11.18%	−10 bps	May 2031	11.50%	97.88	🟡 Medium
SL 10Y BondGovernment of Sri Lanka — Benchmark	11.42%	−8 bps	May 2036	12.00%	96.22	🟡 Medium

ETF	NAV	Change	Chg%	AUM	Expense Ratio	Focus
CSEQCSE Equity Index ETF (Proposed)	—	Pending SEC	Pending	—	—	CSE All-Share
iShares FMiShares MSCI Frontier & Select EM ETF	32.48	+0.42	▲ 1.31%	$684M	0.79%	Frontier Markets incl. SL
MAFMMarket Vectors Frontier ETF	26.14	+0.18	▲ 0.69%	$142M	0.96%	Frontier Markets
GLDSPDR Gold Shares ETF	316.84	+1.78	▲ 0.56%	$83B	0.40%	Gold — relevant to SL jewellery

⚠️ CSE does not currently list domestic ETFs. The SEC is developing a regulatory framework for 2026–2027. International ETFs shown are available via licensed foreign brokers.

12,847.35

▲ 157.42 (+1.24%)

🇱🇰

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Sri Lanka Economic Calendar

Upcoming macro events that move CSE markets

Full Calendar →

This Week — May 12–16, 2026

Date / Time	Country	Event	Impact	Previous	Forecast	Actual
Mon 12 · 09:30	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	CBSL Monthly Economic Indicators	●●● High	—	—	Released
Tue 13 · 10:00	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	Colombo Tea Auction — Weekly Prices	●●● High	LKR 1,240/kg	—	LKR 1,414/kg
Wed 14 · 08:00	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	CCPI Inflation (April 2026)	●●● High	4.5%	4.1%	4.2%
Thu 15 · 09:00	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	Foreign Exchange Reserves (April)	●●● High	$5.4B	$5.5B	$5.6B
Fri 16 · 09:30	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	Tourist Arrivals (April 2026)	●● Med	186,420	195,000	Pending

Next Week — May 19–23, 2026

Mon 19 · 10:00	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	CBSL Policy Rate Decision	●●● High	8.00%	7.75%	—
Wed 21 · 09:00	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	GDP Growth Q1 2026 (Advance)	●●● High	4.5%	5.1%	—
Fri 23 · All Day	🇱🇰 Sri Lanka	IMF Programme — 6th & Final Review	●●● High	5/6 done	6/6	—

🏢

Sri Lanka Real Estate Index

Residential · Commercial · Land · Port City · REITs & Developer Stocks

🟢 Market: Recovering Full RE Dashboard →

Property Price Index — Key Markets

Average asking prices per sq.ft · Updated May 2026

All Districts →

Colombo 7 (Cinnamon Gardens)

Luxury Condo

LKR 42,500

per sq.ft · Asking

▲ +18.2% YoY

Gross Yield: 5.8% · Rental: LKR 210/sqft/mo

Colombo 3 (Kollupitiya)

Commercial Office

LKR 38,000

per sq.ft · Asking

▲ +12.4% YoY

Gross Yield: 7.8% · Grade A office recovering

Port City Colombo

Mixed Dev.

USD 850

per sq.ft · Phase 2 Presale

● Presale Open

Special Economic Zone · USD-denominated leases

Galle Road Corridor

Land

LKR 28M

per perch · Prime frontage

▲ +22.0% YoY

High demand: Retail + F&B expansion

Kandy (Peradeniya)

Residential

LKR 12,800

per sq.ft · Mid-range

▲ +9.1% YoY

University area: strong rental demand

Galle (Old Town Area)

Heritage Villa

LKR 18,500

per sq.ft · Restored

▲ +31.0% YoY

Tourism-driven demand · Airbnb yields 11%+

Battaramulla (IT Park)

Tech Office

LKR 22,000

per sq.ft · Grade B+

▲ +14.6% YoY

IT/BPO expansion driving occupancy

Negombo (Beach Road)

Boutique Hotel

LKR 6.5M

per perch · Beachfront

▲ +27.4% YoY

Airport proximity · Tourism hotspot

Real Estate vs CSE Equity — 3-Year Return Comparison

Post-crisis recovery (2023–2026)

+87.4%

ASPI Total Return

+61.2%

Col. Prime RE

7.8%

Commercial Yield

📊 Stock Sense LK View: Equities still outperform on absolute returns. Real estate offers stability + USD exposure via Port City. Recommended allocation for recovery phase: 70% equities / 30% RE.

📍 Price Hotspots by District & Type

YoY change · Q1 2026

Colombo 01

Commercial Office

LKR 35,000/sqft

▲ +10.2%

Colombo 02

Mixed Residential

LKR 28,000/sqft

▲ +15.8%

Colombo 04

Luxury Apartment

LKR 38,500/sqft

▲ +20.1%

Rajagiriya

Mid-range Condo

LKR 17,200/sqft

▲ +11.4%

Maharagama

Suburban Land

LKR 4.8M/perch

▲ +8.9%

Mount Lavinia

Beachfront Villa

LKR 22,000/sqft

▲ +24.3%

Nawala

IT Hub Office

LKR 19,500/sqft

▲ +13.7%

Moratuwa

Industrial

LKR 8,200/sqft

▲ +6.2%

Mirissa

Tourism Villa

LKR 12,800/sqft

▲ +35.6%

🏗️ CSE-Listed RE Stocks

See all →

🏙️

John Keells Holdings

JKH.N0000 · Real Estate + Hotels

198.50

+2.34%

🏢

Overseas Realty (Ceylon)

ORC.N0000 · Commercial RE

18.40

+1.66%

🏘️

CT Holdings

CTHR.N0000 · Property + Retail

147.50

+2.08%

🏗️

Aitken Spence

SPEN.N0000 · Hotels + Logistics

74.80

+1.22%

🌳

Carson Cumberbatch

CARS.N0000 · Property + Plantations

389.00

−1.27%

🏙️ Port City Colombo — Special Economic Zone

Phase 2 Price

USD 850/sqft

Total Area

269 hectares

Tax Rate (SEZ)

Completion

2027 ETA

Currency

USD / Multi

Approved Investors

47 companies

📌 Zero income tax for 25 years for qualifying businesses. Foreign nationals permitted to own property in SEZ. Key catalyst for premium Colombo real estate.

💡 RE Market Insights

📈

IMF programme stability is unlocking foreign buyer appetite for Colombo prime property. Enquiries from UAE and Singapore investors up 340% YoY.

🟢 Positive Signal

⚠️

High mortgage rates (14–16%) still suppressing mid-market demand. CBSL rate cuts expected to unlock pent-up buyer demand in H2 2026.

⚖️ Watch

🏖️

South coast (Galle–Mirissa–Weligama) seeing strongest price appreciation driven by boutique tourism property and Airbnb yields of 10–14%.

🟢 Hot Zone

🏗️

New condo completions in Colombo 2026: ~4,200 units. Absorption rate 68% — inventory tighter than 2019 peak.

🟢 Supply-Demand

🏛️

Government Policy Hub & Sentiment Monitor

Cabinet decisions · Budget impact · CBSL rates · Regulatory changes · Market effect analysis

⚖️ Sentiment: Cautiously Positive

Policy Radar — Recent Government & CBSL Decisions

All decisions tracked with sector-level market impact

Full Policy Archive →

May 12, 2026

CBSL Holds Policy Rate at 8.00%

Inflation below 5%; rate cut cycle to begin Q3 2026 per CBSL guidance

● Positive

BankingREHotels

May 08, 2026

Cabinet Approves IT Export Incentive Extension

0% tax on IT/BPO export income extended to 2030; FDI threshold lowered to USD 1M

● Positive

IT/BPOTelecom

May 02, 2026

Tourism VAT Reduced from 18% to 12%

Measure to boost competitiveness vs Maldives and Thailand; effective July 1

● Positive

HotelsLeisureRE

Apr 28, 2026

Fuel Price Formula Adjustment — Petrol +LKR 12

IMF-mandated cost-reflective pricing; logistics sector facing margin pressure

● Negative

LogisticsFMCGRetail

Apr 22, 2026

Port City SEZ Phase 2 Investment Approvals

47 companies approved; USD 2.1B committed investment; financial services hub on track

● Positive

BankingREInsurance

Apr 15, 2026

Import Tax Rationalization — Electronics & Vehicles

Mixed: consumer electronics cheaper; EV imports facilitated; ICE vehicle imports remain restricted

Mixed

RetailLeasingTelecom

Apr 10, 2026

SLFRS 17 Insurance Standard Implementation

New insurance accounting standard; short-term P&L volatility; long-term transparency positive

⚖ Neutral

InsuranceBanking

Mar 28, 2026

Budget 2026 — Corporate Tax Adjustments

Standard rate stays 30%; SME rate reduced to 14%; plantation company rate cut to 14%

Mixed

PlantationsSMEsBanking

🔮 Upcoming Policy Decisions & Projected Market Impact

Forward-looking analysis — decisions expected in next 90 days

🔴 HIGH IMPACT · Expected: May 19, 2026

CBSL Policy Rate Decision — Potential First Cut to 7.75%

If CBSL cuts by 25bps as signalled, this would be the first rate cut in this cycle. Inflation at 4.2% gives headroom. IMF Article IV consultation supports easing.

Banking↓ NIM pressure, but credit growth +

Hotels↑ Lower cost of debt, expansion

Real Estate↑ Mortgage rates ease, demand +

ASPI↑ Re-rating catalyst for equities

🔴 HIGH IMPACT · Expected: May 23, 2026

IMF 6th & Final Review Completion

Completion of the 4-year EFF programme marks Sri Lanka's full graduation from crisis mode. Final $300M tranche + potential new precautionary credit line being negotiated.

LKR↑ Currency confidence, FX stability

Banking↑ Sovereign rating upgrade likely

ASPI↑ Foreign investor confidence surge

Bonds↑ Yield compression expected

🔵 MEDIUM IMPACT · Expected: June 2026

Eurobond Restructuring Final Settlement

ISB restructuring with international creditors expected to close Q2 2026. Terms include 30–35% NPV reduction. Clears path for new sovereign bond issuance post-2027.

Banking↑ Sovereign risk premium falls

Insurance↑ Gov't bond holdings repriced

LKR↑ Debt sustainability restored

🔵 MEDIUM IMPACT · Expected: July 2026

Tourism VAT Cut Implementation (12% from 18%)

Effective July 1. Will improve SL's price competitiveness vs Maldives. Combined with 2.5M arrival target for 2026, this is a structural tailwind for H&L sector.

JKH↑ Direct hotel revenue benefit

HHL↑ Healthcare + leisure tourism

SPEN↑ Aitken Spence Hotels

⚪ WATCH · Expected: Q3 2026

Digital Economy & E-Commerce Policy Framework

New ICTA framework for digital payments, e-commerce licensing, and data localisation. Expected to formalise Sri Lanka's rapidly growing gig and digital economy sector.

IT/BPO↑ Regulatory clarity unlocks FDI

Telecom→ Mixed; data rules costly

Banking↑ Digital payment volume +

⚪ WATCH · Expected: H2 2026

Logistics Corridor — Trincomalee Port Expansion

Cabinet approval for USD 700M Trinco port expansion with Indian and Japanese backing. Positions SL as transshipment hub alongside Colombo Port, which handled 8M TEUs in 2025.

Logistics↑ Major sector re-rating

Construction↑ Major project pipeline

RE↑ Trinco area land values

Budget 2026 — Sector Impact Matrix

Key fiscal measures and their effect on CSE-listed companies

Corporate Tax: Standard Rate Held at 30%

Affects: All listed companies

Neutral — was 40% in 2022, stable now

SME Rate Cut to 14% (from 25%)

Affects: Smaller listed companies, growth stocks

Positive — earnings uplift for smaller caps

Plantation Sector Rate Cut to 14%

Affects: CARS, KLNR, LIOC, TEL

Positive — major earnings catalyst

Tourism VAT Reduced: 18% → 12%

Affects: JKH, SPEN, AHUN, hotel companies

Strongly Positive — demand stimulant

Withholding Tax on Dividends: 15%

Affects: All dividend-paying companies

Negative — reduces income investor appeal

Capital Gains Tax on CSE: 0% Maintained

Affects: All equity investors

Strongly Positive — market competitive

Fuel Subsidy Removal Complete

Affects: Logistics, FMCG, Retail, Transport

Negative — cost pressure on logistics

IT Export Income: 0% Tax to 2030

Affects: CALT, IT/BPO exporters, tech sector

Strongly Positive — sector re-rating

🧭 Government Sentiment Score

Cautiously Positive

Score: 0 = Hostile · 100 = Pro-Business

Fiscal Discipline

Tax Competitiveness

Foreign Investment

Regulatory Clarity

Labour Market Reform

SOE Reform Progress

📈 CBSL Rate Cycle History

Apr 2022

Emergency hike —
crisis peak

15.50%

Sep 2022

Crisis peak
maintained

15.50%

Jun 2023

Cut cycle begins

12.00%

Dec 2023

Continued easing

10.00%

Jun 2024

Further normalization

9.00%

Jan 2025

Easing pause

8.50%

Oct 2025

Final 2025 cut

8.00%

May 2026

Current rate

8.00%

Q3 2026

Forecast: first cut

7.75%?

⚠️ Political Risk Monitor

🟢

Political Stability

NPP govt majority; no election until 2029

🟡

SOE Privatisation

SriLankan Airlines, Srilankan Hotels — delayed

🟡

Labour Reform

Industrial Relations Act — union opposition

🔴

Brain Drain Risk

Skilled emigration still elevated; IT talent shortage

🏛️

IMF Bailout Tracker & Economic Impact Model

Extended Fund Facility (EFF) · 4-year programme · $3B approved · Conditions & CSE implications

Programme Progress

5 / 6 Reviews ✓

IMF Programme Macro Targets vs Actuals

Key performance indicators monitored each review

Primary Balance

+2.3%

IMF Target: +2.0% of GDP ✓

Exceeded target — critical milestone

Forex Reserves

$5.6B

IMF Target: $4.5B ✓

3.2 months import cover — ahead of plan

Inflation (CCPI)

4.2%

IMF Target: <5% ✓

From 70% peak in Sep 2022

GDP Growth

+4.8%

IMF Target: +3.5% ✓

Q4 2025; Q1 2026 est. +5.1%

Revenue/GDP Ratio

13.2%

IMF Target: 15% by 2027

Improving but below target

Debt/GDP

108%

IMF Target: <95% by 2032

On track but long-term concern

SOE Reform

62%

IMF Target: Full restructuring

CEB reform done; SriLankan delayed

Total Disbursed

$2.7B

Total Programme: $3.0B

$300M final tranche pending review 6

EFF Programme Review Timeline

Review

Details & Conditions

Amount

Status

Market Rx

1st Review — Programme Initiation

Mar 2023 · Completed

Primary surplus commitment; CBSL independence; forex accumulation targets

$330M

✓ Completed

ASPI +8.4%

2nd Review — Fiscal Consolidation

Sep 2023 · Completed

Revenue administration reform; SOE tariff restructuring; inflation trajectory

$330M

✓ Completed

ASPI +12.1%

3rd Review — Structural Reforms

Mar 2024 · Completed

CEB electricity reform; banking sector stress tests; domestic debt restructuring

$350M

✓ Completed

ASPI +6.2%

4th Review — Growth Phase Begins

Sep 2024 · Completed

External debt restructuring with bilateral creditors; revenue target overperformance

$350M

✓ Completed

ASPI +9.8%

5th Review — Programme Near Completion

Mar 2026 · Completed

ISB restructuring finalised; forex reserves $5.6B; primary surplus +2.3%; GDP growth beats target

$350M

✓ Completed

ASPI +7.4%

6th & Final Review — Programme Graduation

May 23, 2026 · Upcoming

Final fiscal benchmarks; debt sustainability review; new precautionary credit line (PCL) negotiations

$300M

⏳ Pending

ASPI +?

Programme Disbursement Progress

$0$2.71B disbursed$3.0B total

IMF Conditions → Economy → CSE Market Impact Chain

How each condition ripples from policy to sectors to stock prices

IMF Condition

Economy & Sector Effect

CSE Impact

Primary Surplus Target

Government spends less than it earns → lower borrowing → bond yields fall → cheaper credit for companies → earnings expansion across all sectors

🟢 ASPI +

Forex Reserve Buildup

LKR stability → import cost predictability → profit margins protected for importers/manufacturers; foreign investor confidence in LKR returns

🟢 LKR +, FII +

Cost-Reflective Fuel Pricing

Fuel subsidies removed → CEB/Ceylon Petroleum profits normalise → logistics sector faces margin squeeze → consumer prices up modestly

🔴 Logistics −

SOE Reform (CEB)

CEB tariff reform complete → power sector losses stop → banking sector's CEB loan exposure de-risked → credit quality improves

🟢 Banks +

Revenue Administration

IRD modernisation → higher tax compliance → more informal businesses formalise → bank account growth → banking sector volumes +

🟢 Banks +

Debt Restructuring

Sovereign debt overhang lifted → SL credit rating improves → risk premium on all SL assets falls → re-rating of equities and bonds

🟢 All sectors +

Central Bank Independence

CBSL Act 2023 — monetary financing banned → monetary policy credibility → inflation anchored → rate normalisation → equity re-rating

🟢 ASPI re-rating

📋 Structural Benchmarks Status

Primary Surplus: +2% GDP

✓ Met

CEB Electricity Tariff Reform

✓ Met

Central Bank Act (Independence)

✓ Met

Domestic Debt Restructuring

✓ Met

ISB External Debt Restructuring

⏳ In Progress

Revenue/GDP Target: 15%

⏳ 13.2% — Below Target

SriLankan Airlines Restructuring

⏳ Delayed

SOE Governance Reform

⏳ Partial

Fuel Subsidy Removal

✓ Met

Anti-Corruption Framework

🕐 Pending

🚀 Post-IMF Roadmap (2027+)

Likely Scenario

New IMF Precautionary Credit Line (PCL) — $1.5B buffer for 2027–2029. Maintains policy credibility without full conditionality.

New Sovereign Bond Issuance

SL eligible for international markets post-2027. Estimated first bond: $500M–$1B. Lower coupon than pre-crisis thanks to IMF credibility.

Credit Rating Upgrade Path

S&P: CCC → B by 2027 · Moody's: Ca → B3 by 2027. Upgrade unlocks EM index inclusion for CSE stocks → foreign capital inflow surge.

Stock Sense LK View

IMF graduation is the single biggest re-rating catalyst for CSE since the crisis. ASPI target 18,000 by end 2027 assumes smooth IMF exit + rating upgrade.

📊

CSE Sector Analysis — Deep Dive

Policy impact · Key companies · Macro drivers · Stock Sense LK ratings by sector

Hotels +4.2%

IT +3.8%

Banks +2.1%

Logistics −1.4%

Sector Return YTD

+31.4%

Best performer 2026

Tourist Arrivals

2.1M

Jan–Apr 2026

Avg Revenue/Room

USD 148

5-star Colombo · +22% YoY

Occupancy Rate

76%

vs 48% in 2022

2026 Arrival Target

2.5M

Tracking 84% of target

Policy Impact on Hotels & Leisure

Tourism VAT: 18% → 12%

Effective July 2026. Reduces operating costs for all hotel operators. Passes savings to travellers — makes SL more competitive vs Maldives and Bali.

🟢 Strongly Positive · Direct earnings uplift

IMF Programme Stability

LKR stability reduces FX risk for international guests. Hotel revenues mostly USD/EUR-denominated — stable LKR means less hedge cost and predictable LKR revenue conversion.

🟢 Positive · Margin protection

CBSL Rate Cut Outlook

Lower interest rates reduce hotel debt servicing costs (sector has significant LKR-denominated capex loans). Expansion projects become viable again — JKH Cinnamon Life, Aitken Spence pipeline.

🟢 Positive · Capex enables expansion

Hotels & Leisure — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Revenue Growth	Stock Sense™
JKH.N0000	John Keells Holdings PLC	198.50	+28.4%	14.2x	8.6x	+34%	🟢 Strong Buy
SPEN.N0000	Aitken Spence PLC	74.80	+22.1%	11.8x	7.2x	+28%	🟢 Buy
HHL.N0000	Hemas Holdings PLC	74.20	+18.6%	16.1x	9.4x	+19%	🟡 Hold
AHUN.N0000	Asian Hotels & Properties	42.60	+31.2%	12.4x	6.8x	+41%	🟢 Strong Buy
CTHR.N0000	CT Holdings PLC	147.50	+24.8%	12.8x	7.9x	+22%	🟢 Buy

🌍 Key Macro Drivers

Tourism recovery momentum — 2.5M 2026 target tracking well; India + China markets key sources

VAT cut July 2026 directly improves price competitiveness vs competing destinations

Cinnamon Life Colombo opening 2026 — adds 300+ luxury keys to JKH's portfolio

USD/LKR stable but any LKR strengthening reduces USD revenue conversion

Labour shortages as hospitality workers remain abroad — wage inflation pressure

📊 Sector Performance vs ASPI

Sector Return YTD

+28.7%

2nd best performer

IT Exports (2025)

$1.4B

+22% YoY

Workforce

95,000

IT professionals

Target 2025

$3B

Exports by 2025

FDI in IT (2025)

$340M

Record inflows

Policy Impact on IT & BPO

IT Export Tax: 0% to 2030

Extended in Budget 2026 with further FDI incentives. Tax holiday is the single biggest competitive advantage for SL vs Philippines, India, and Bangladesh.

🟢 Strongly Positive · Sector-defining policy

Port City SEZ Financial Hub

Tech companies in SEZ pay 0% income tax for 25 years. Growing fintech and digital services cluster being developed — potential to replicate Singapore model at micro-scale.

🟢 Positive · FDI magnet

Digital Economy Framework (Q3)

New data protection and e-commerce licensing regime. Short-term compliance cost for operators; long-term credibility for SL as a data services hub for regional MNCs.

⚖️ Neutral-Positive · Mixed near term

IT & BPO — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E	Revenue USD	Export%	Stock Sense™
CALT.N0000	Calcey Technologies PLC	52.40	+48.2%	22.4x	$28M	94%	🟢 Strong Buy
DIAL.N0000	Dialog Axiata PLC	10.90	−4.2%	18.4x	$180M	22%	🟡 Hold
BRNS.N0000	Browns Investments	8.80	+18.9%	15.2x	$45M	68%	🟢 Buy

🌍 Key Macro Drivers

Global demand for nearshore BPO/software from UK and Australian markets — SL time zone advantage

0% IT export tax renewed to 2030 — strongest fiscal incentive in the region for tech FDI

Brain drain risk — 40,000+ IT professionals left SL 2022–2024. Talent pipeline remains tight

LKR appreciation risk — IT revenues USD-denominated, LKR strengthening reduces LKR revenue

AI services opportunity — SL firms pivoting to AI/ML services command 40–60% premium billing

Sector Return YTD

−8.4%

Worst performer 2026

Port Throughput

8.1M TEU

Colombo Port 2025

Fuel Price Impact

+LKR 12

Per litre since Apr

Freight Rates

Stable

Asia–Europe corridor

Trinco Expansion

USD 700M

Cabinet approval pending

Policy Impact on Logistics & Freight

Fuel Price Formula Adjustment

IMF-mandated cost-reflective pricing added LKR 12/litre to petrol in April. Direct margin squeeze for transport and logistics operators. Larger players can hedge; smaller operators hit harder.

🔴 Negative · Margin pressure sector-wide

Trincomalee Port Expansion

If Cabinet approves USD 700M expansion, SL becomes dual-port transshipment hub. Game-changer for freight volumes and logistics sector long-term growth.

🟢 Positive Long-Term · 2027+ catalyst

Import Tax Rationalization

Selective reduction of import duties on commercial vehicles may reduce replacement capex costs for fleet operators. EV logistics subsidy scheme also proposed under Digital Economy Bill.

⚖️ Neutral-Positive · Mixed by sub-sector

Logistics & Freight — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E	Revenue LKR	Fuel Sensitivity	Stock Sense™
EXPO.N0000	Expolanka Holdings PLC	46.20	−12.4%	8.2x	LKR 280B	High	🟡 Hold
SPEN.N0000	Aitken Spence (Freight)	74.80	+6.8%	11.8x	LKR 48B	Medium	🟢 Buy
TRAN.N0000	Mahindra Ideal Finance	12.40	−8.1%	10.4x	LKR 18B	High	🟡 Hold

🌍 Key Macro Drivers

Fuel price increases squeezing margins — fleet operators passing costs to customers with lag

Colombo Port maintains position as top transshipment hub in South Asia — 8.1M TEU in 2025

Post-recovery import volumes rebounding — consumer goods, construction materials volumes strong

Global freight rates volatile — Red Sea disruption and supply chain realignment affecting Asia-Europe lanes

Sector Return YTD

+18.9%

Strong recovery play

Sector Avg P/E

9.4x

vs 12x hist. average

Credit Growth (Q1)

+12.4%

YoY — recovering

NPL Ratio

8.2%

Declining from 12% peak

Dividend Yield

5.8%

Sector average

Policy Impact on Banking & Finance

CBSL Rate Cycle — Easing

Rate cuts ahead squeeze Net Interest Margins near-term. However, credit growth re-acceleration and lower provisioning needs offset NIM pressure. Net effect: earnings positive.

🟢 Net Positive · Credit volume growth offsets NIM squeeze

Sovereign Rating Upgrade Path

As SL's sovereign rating improves post-IMF, banks (which hold government securities) see the value of their bond portfolios increase — direct balance sheet benefit.

🟢 Strongly Positive · Balance sheet re-rating

Withholding Tax on Dividends: 15%

New WHT on dividends reduces net yield for shareholders in banking stocks. Banks known as high-dividend payers — moderates retail investor appeal somewhat.

🔴 Slightly Negative · Dividend yield compression

Banking & Finance — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E	P/BV	Div Yield	Stock Sense™
SAMP.N0000	Sampath Bank PLC	89.75	+22.4%	8.8x	1.0x	6.8%	🟢 Strong Buy
COMB.N0000	Commercial Bank of Ceylon	112.25	+18.1%	9.4x	1.1x	5.9%	🟢 Buy
HNB.N0000	Hatton National Bank	186.00	+16.8%	8.2x	0.9x	7.1%	🟢 Buy
NTB.N0000	Nations Trust Bank	68.40	+14.2%	7.8x	0.8x	5.2%	🟡 Hold

Sector Return YTD

+12.4%

Tax cut catalyst

Tea Export Revenue

$1.1B

2025 · Record high

Colombo Tea Auction

LKR 1,414/kg

Record auction price

Rubber Price

$2.18/kg

+14% YoY

Corporate Tax Rate

14%

Cut from 25% — Budget 2026

Policy Impact on Plantations

Corporate Tax Cut: 25% → 14%

Single biggest earnings catalyst for the plantation sector in years. Affects all listed plantation companies — direct bottom-line uplift. EPS estimates revised +30–40% across sector.

🟢 Strongly Positive · Major EPS catalyst

Minimum Wage: LKR 800/day

Mandatory minimum wage for plantation workers increases labour costs by ~18%. Partially offsets tax benefit. Mechanisation investment now makes economic sense — long-term positive for yields.

⚖️ Mixed · Cost up, tax savings net positive

LKR Stability

Tea and rubber exports are USD-denominated. LKR stability at 298-302 provides predictable LKR conversion. Any LKR strengthening is a risk; IMF programme keeps FX predictable.

🟢 Positive · FX predictability

Plantations — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E (pre-tax cut)	P/E (post-tax cut est.)	Tea/Rubber Split	Stock Sense™
CARS.N0000	Carson Cumberbatch	389.00	+10.2%	13.2x	9.4x	80/20 Plantation+Holdings	🟢 Buy
KLNR.N0000	Kelani Valley Plantations	82.40	+14.8%	11.4x	8.2x	70/30 Tea/Rubber	🟢 Strong Buy
TEL.N0000	Talawakelle Tea Estates	48.60	+18.2%	10.8x	7.6x	95/5 Tea dominant	🟢 Strong Buy

Sector Return YTD

−2.8%

Underperformer

Mobile Penetration

148%

SIM cards per person

4G Coverage

91%

Population coverage

ARPU (Dialog)

LKR 680

Monthly · Flat YoY

5G Timeline

2027

TRCSL auction expected

Policy Impact on Telecom & Media

IT Export Incentives Extended

Dialog's enterprise and cloud services division benefits from the IT export tax regime. Encourages expansion into IT services alongside core telco.

🟢 Positive for Dialog Enterprise

Digital Economy Framework

Data localisation requirements could impose infrastructure capex costs on telcos. However, formalising digital payments creates revenue opportunity for mobile money platforms.

⚖️ Mixed · Compliance cost vs opportunity

5G Spectrum Auction

TRCSL expected to launch 5G spectrum auction in 2027. Capex-intensive for operators but unlocks new revenue streams: IoT, enterprise 5G, fixed wireless access replacing fibre.

⚖️ Long-term Positive · Near-term capex heavy

Telecom & Media — CSE Stock Screener

Symbol	Company	Price (LKR)	YTD %	P/E	EV/EBITDA	Div Yield	Stock Sense™
DIAL.N0000	Dialog Axiata PLC	10.90	−4.2%	18.4x	6.2x	3.8%	🟡 Hold
ETCA.N0000	Softlogic Life Insurance	18.60	+8.4%	14.2x	8.4x	4.2%	🟡 Hold

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